Today
Due for review3
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Review
Tesla stock will close above $250 by end of 2025
AI draft ready — Wrong -
Review
Rahul will leave his job at Google before 2026
AI draft ready — Still at Google -
Review
RBI will cut repo rate in December 2025 policy meeting
AI checking…
Active4
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161d
GPT-5 will be released before July 2026
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130d
My startup will close its seed round by May
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344d
Remote work mandates will increase across Fortune 500 in 2026
Recently reviewed
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OpenAI will ship a reasoning model before end of 2024
Well-calibrated — tracked competitive signals and hiring patterns -
Bitcoin will hit $200k before end of 2025
Overconfidence · Ignored macro headwinds, anchored to bull narrative
New Prediction
Review
Tesla stock will close above $250 by end of 2025
Strong EV demand growth, FSD improvements, and energy business expansion. However, macro headwinds and Elon's political involvement could be wildcards.
What happened? pre-filled by agent
Where did your thinking fail? pre-filled by agent
The agent suggested these patterns. Tap to add or remove.
Honest reflection pre-filled by agent
How surprised were you?
Tracking surprise helps identify your epistemic blind spots.
All Predictions
12 predictions-
Review
Tesla stock will close above $250 by end of 2025
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Review
Rahul will leave his job at Google before 2026
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161d
GPT-5 will be released before July 2026
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130d
My startup will close its seed round by May
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OpenAI will ship a reasoning model before end of 2024
Well-calibrated — tracked competitive signals and hiring patterns -
Bitcoin will hit $200k before end of 2025
Overconfidence · Anchoring · Wishful thinking
Thinking Patterns
Based on 48 reviewed predictionsYour recurring blind spots
These are the thinking errors that show up most often when your predictions are wrong. Focus your improvement here.
You assign 80%+ confidence more often than warranted, especially in Markets and Technology. When you're at 85%+ confidence, you're right only 58% of the time.
In People predictions, you consistently overestimate how much rational self-interest drives decisions and underestimate emotional or social factors.
You tend to stick with your first take even when new evidence should change your mind. Most common in Geopolitics predictions.
You underweight low-probability, high-impact events. Your surprise rating averages 4.2 when this error is tagged — meaning outcomes genuinely blindsided you.
Predictions about your own ventures (Personal category) are systematically overconfident. Your accuracy in Personal is 45% despite average confidence of 68%.
By domain
How well-calibrated you are in each area.
Lessons learned
Key reflections from your past reviews.
I was anchored to the post-halving bull narrative and ignored the Fed's rate hold. 90% confidence was absurd given the macro uncertainty. Need to discount confidence in markets by at least 20% from my gut feel.
I assumed rational economic maximization. In reality, his decision was driven by family proximity and work-life balance. I need to weight non-financial factors more heavily in People predictions.
I underestimated how quickly political consensus can form when there's public pressure. My model of EU decision-making was outdated — post-ChatGPT political dynamics moved much faster than historical base rates suggested.